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2011年7月30日星期六

Why Steve Jobs Would Be a Better President Than Obama

Just as congress and the president are bickering over raising the federal debt ceiling, news comes from the BBC that Apple has a larger cash reserve than the United States of America (Apple has $76.4 billion, the U.S. has $73.7 billion).

So we are going to do what any sensible person looking at these two stories would do. We are going to suggest that Steve Jobs run for president. We predict not only that will he be better at the job than Barack Obama, but that he will be the greatest U.S. president we have ever seen.

Why on Earth would we suggest such an outrageous change of command? After all, Steve Jobs has never run for public office. But when you look at the positives he would bring to the country, it’s impossible to deny that he would make mincemeat of what our current commander-in-chief has done.

He’s an A**hole

For most politicians, no matter what they claim to stand for or what they promise in campaigns, their loyalties lie first and foremost with their own power. When push comes to shove, they will do what will get them in power, and then they will do what will keep them in power.

Yet they are always pretending. They have to put on a face that they’re these nice guys whose loyalties are, first and foremost, with the American people (as if any two Americans can completely agree on anything, much less the direction of the country). All presidents are a**holes, but they’re usually closet a**holes.

Not Steve Jobs.

Steve Jobs makes no apologies about being an a**hole. Sure, he smiles when he’s pitching a new product, but even then it’s more of a smarmy smirk than a warm ray of sunshine. Nobody makes the mistake of thinking he’s Mr. Rogers. He cuts through the B.S. and saves his energy for what really matters.

While this could be off-putting to some, it’s the perfect quality for the president to have. The thing about a**holes is that they know how to get stuff done. Steve Jobs doesn’t waste energy on niceties.

Consider this story from Those Guys Have All the Fun: Inside the World of ESPN (pointed out by John Gruber at Daring Fireball):

The story goes that ESPN president George Bodenheimer [...] spotted Apple CEO Steve Jobs in a hallway. It seemed like a good time to introduce himself. “I am George Bodenheimer,” he said to Jobs. “I run ESPN.”

Jobs just looked at him and said nothing other than “Your phone is the dumbest f***ing idea I have ever heard,” then turned and walked away.

You know what you’re getting from Steve Jobs. He’ll be the first politician in history who isn’t two-faced. He can’t possibly be two-faced because he wears his a**hole-ness on his sleeve.

Contrast this with Obama, who makes grandiose, rousing speeches that stir the emotions of his supporters – and then proceeds to deal most of those promises away before negotiations have even begun.

Jobs’ speeches will stir emotions, but he won’t make empty promises. In fact, as head of the most secretive government in history, the only promises he makes will be ones he has already been working on for the better part of a year. Major government overhauls and new initiatives will typically be announced two weeks before they’re set to take effect.

Half of the country won’t like Jobs, but they’ll know what they’re getting from him. This will build trust and respect.  His approval rating will be through the roof, and America will be united.

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Efficient Congress

As president, Jobs will require that all congressional bills that cross his desk be simplified. And when we say ‘simplified,’ we really mean it. There will be no more 200-page manifestos, filled with pork, earmarks, and fine print that nobody can possibly follow.

Jobs will declare on Day One that he isn’t signing anything that can’t be summed up in two sentences. The two sentences will have to be displayed in a black Myriad font with a white background. Corresponding images and promotional videos will be expected as well. Paper will not be used – all bills will be presented as stand-alone iPad apps:

An example of a health care bill in the Jobs era.

The biggest strength Jobs will have when it comes to congress, however, will be the leverage he will have on all of them. Every member of Congress will have been lobbied by some company or organization. Every one of those companies will be violating some patent which is owned by Apple.

The choice for congressmen will be very simple:

Do you want to support Jobs’ latest initiative, or do you want the organizations that are funding your political career to go bankrupt defending patent infringements?

It will be win after win for Jobs’ administration.

iHouse

As iconic a look as the White House has, Steve Jobs will decide that it’s time for an update. He will task Apple Senior VP of Design Jonathan Ive with redesigning the White House.

As White House 2.0, it will be known by most as iHouse. It will feature a familiar look, borrowed from Apple’s successful retail stores.

Tourists will be free to enter the open front, where they’ll be greeted by iHouse staffers (known as ‘Creatives’). If the citizens simply want to take a look around, they’re free to do that.

If, however, a person has a problem with something that is going on in the country, he will be ushered to the Genius Bar in the back of the iHouse. A Genius will be waiting to hear out his complaints, to which he will listen patiently. If the American’s complaint can’t be immediately resolved, he will be granted Apple Store credit and will walk home happy.

In addition, the iHouse will no longer be limited to Washington D.C. iHouses will pop up all over the country, in which citizens can have their voices heard and their needs satisfied.

The large number of iHouses will also serve to greatly increase the president’s security, as nobody will ever really know which iHouse Jobs is living in at any given time.

Vice President Steve Wozniak

In a gesture of unity and making amends, Jobs will select his Apple co-founder, Steve Wozniak, as vice president.

If you think Joe Biden is a gaffe waiting to happen, wait until you see Woz. He’ll regularly be caught on a live mic speaking of A.I. robots taking over the world. But it won’t matter, because people will just love him.

The mood at press conferences will be lightened, as he will frequently interrupt them with impromptu magic shows. Media cycles will be dominated by the quesiton of which Android phone he is toting this week

 

CNN's cameras will be frequently hijacked by Vice President Woz showing us something really cool

Woz’s fuzzy teddy bear presence will become a symbol for easing up, smiling and enjoying the ride. Americans will be happier than ever.

Press Secretary Walt Mossberg

With Jobs putting his own spin on the way that the country is run, who better to be the administration’s spokesperson than someone who has been reviewing his products for years? Walt Mossberg will fill the role of iHouse Press Secretary like no other.

In a bold move, Jobs will bring on Mossberg as press secretary without officially making him part of the administration. In fact, Walt won’t directly associate with anyone in the iHouse. This seemingly illogical move will pay huge dividends, as Mossberg’s distance from the administration will build a trust with the media and the public that no spokesperson has ever had.

Who better to speak for the iHouse than the nation's most trusted tech journalist?

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Walt will begin every press conference with an in-depth, unbiased review of Jobs’ latest moves as president. He won’t mince words and will be the first to criticize the president when his actions merit it.

This balanced view will give an immense power to his words, and when he does ultimately come to the conclusion that Jobs is doing his job better than any other President in history, we will all agree. The press – and the entire country – will come to a silent agreement with the administration. It will be an unprecedented moment in history.

Kick-ass State of the Union Addresses

But the real highlight of the Jobs administration will be his State of the Union addresses. They will kick ass.

Hotly anticipated for months, blogs will spend the better part of the year speculating about rumors and leaks of what he will announce. When the day finally comes, they won’t disappoint. For the first time, congress’ applause will be completely sincere. 95% of Americans will tune in to watch.

After about 50 minutes of exciting announcements and news of breakthroughs, the words everyone in the country has been waiting for will be uttered:

“One more thing…”

President Jobs’ “one more thing” will always be something absolutely amazing. It will be Christmas in January every time.

During his first State of the Union, everyone in the country will be given a free MacBook Air. In his second year in office, everyone will receive shares of Apple stock. For the year after that, everyone’s home will get a built-in Apple Store.

It will be like “Oprah’s Favorite Things,” only you don’t need to be in the studio audience to get in on it. It will be the most wonderful time of the year.

For a Brighter Tomorrow

So, fellow Americans, we implore you to look within. Don’t just settle for what we’ve come to expect from a president. Look at what we could have in a president.

We need a president who is an a**hole and isn’t ashamed of it. We need a more efficient congress. We definitely need free MacBooks.

We need Steve Jobs.

Apple iPad: Five Things I Like Most About the iPad

In keeping with the precedent established in previous "30 Days With..." series, I devoted yesterday's post to detailing my complaints and criticisms. Today is dedicated to the counter point of view--a list of my favorite things about the iPad from my 30 Days With the iPad journey.

There were, of course, some bumps along the way, but there are also a few things that I truly appreciated about using the iPad instead of my notebook. Without further ado, here is my list of the five things I like most about the iPad:

1. Size. Size does matter. And when you're talking about lugging a device around all over town, the smaller the better...to a point. Carting a 15-inch notebook, or maybe one of those laptops with dual 17-inch displays, may provide more of a portable computing workhorse, but then we get into a semantic debate about defining "portable".

On the other end of the spectrum, you could argue that the iPhone (or an Android or Windows Phone 7 smartphone) are even more compact and portable, or make a case for smaller tablets like the7-inch Samsung Galaxy Tab.

The iPad--especially the iPad 2--fits nicely in between those two extremes. It is big enough to make it practical, and small enough to make it portable. It has enough power and flexibility to do what you need it to in most cases, yet it is thin and light enough to be carried like a magazine. The same could be said of other similar tablets as well, like the Motorola Xoom, or the Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1.

2. Stamina. It lasts, and lasts, and lasts. As if the size issue of the device itself isn't enough, working with a notebook on the go for more than a few hours involves carrying the power adapter and/or a backup battery as well. I can leave my home office with a fully-charged iPad 2, and use it freely for any purpose all day with virtually zero chance of running out of juice. It has the added benefit that if I did choose to carry the power adapter for insurance, the outlet plug and USB cable add little in the way of either size or weight.

3. AirPlay.AirPlay is simply awesome. For now, it is primarily an entertainment feature enabling me to stream audio and video content from the iPad to my TV or stereo. It works with some apps, and not with others.

4. App Store. You might recall that I have had some complaints about the Apple App Store. I'd like to see it cleaned up and better organized to make searching through 400,000 apps a little easier, and I wish the App Store would implement a test drive or return policy that would enable me to check out an app and scrap it if it doesn't meet my needs without getting charged for it.

5. Front Camera. The rear camera on the iPad 2 is essentially useless. If Apple doesn't plan to make significant jump in the quality and capabilities of that camera in the next iPad model, it should just eliminate it. The front-facing camera, on the other hand, is quite nice.

The ability to conduct FaceTime video calls, or participate in video conferencing sessions using Fuze Meeting, or WebEx make the iPad 2 much more valuable as a mobile productivity platform than its predecessor.

There is really a lot more that I like about the iPad. I was already an iPad fan and proponent before embarking on the 30 Days With the iPad series. However, just because I like the iPad in and of itself, or as a tablet, does not necessarily mean that I like the iPad as a PC replacement. I tried to keep this list of things I liked focused more or less on the ways I like the iPad 2 as a PC replacement.

Check back tomorrow for my summary and closing thoughts on how this experiment went, and the lesson I have learned along the way in the final 30 Days With the iPad post.

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Apple Bests Nokia and Samsung for Q2 Worldwide Smartphone Sales for Q2 Worldwide Smartphone sales

The official results are in: Apple has taken the crown as the world's largest smartphone maker for raw shipments, surpassing both Nokia and Samsung to capture 20.3 percent of all smartphone shipments worldwide. But, as CEO Steve Jobs might note, there's one more thing: Apple's also taken the crown for worldwide smartphone market share, clocking in at 18.5 percent for the second quarter of 2011.

Just how bad are the losses for Nokia? The company recorded a market share of 38.1 percent during the same time period last year. That's since shrunk to 15.2 percent, putting the handset producer in a solid third place behind Samsung's 17.5 percent smartphone market share. The loss ends Nokia's 15-year reign as the world's top smartphone vendor, according to research firm Strategy Analytics. And it's also done a number on Nokia's stock price– down 47 percent this year alone as the company struggles to compete against both iOS and Android.

Although Samsung took second in total smartphone shipments for the second quarter of 2011, at 19.2 percent, the company actually recorded a higher year-to-year growth in smartphone shipments than even mighty Apple. Year-to-year shipment growth for Apple jumped from 8.4 percent to 11.9 percent between Q2 2010 and Q2 2011. Samsung, however, rocketed from 3.1 percent of all worldwide smartphone shipments to 16.1 percent – thanks, in part, to healthy sales of the company's Galaxy S2 smartphone.

The same growth spike can be seen on Samsung's global market share as well. First-place Apple may have jumped from 13.5 percent to 18.5 percent to capture the lead, but Samsung rose from a scant five percent to 17.5 percent over a single year's worth of time.

"Samsung is breathing down Nokia's neck," said Neil Mawston, an analyst at Strategy Analytics. "An unexciting touch-phone portfolio, inventory correction, wavering demand for the Symbian platform and limited presence in the huge U.S. market continued to weigh on Nokia's near-term performance."

In total, year-to-year smartphone shipments worldwide grew 76 percent to a total of 110 million units: Apple shipped 20.3 million, Samsung shipped 19.2 million, and Nokia shipped 16.7 million.

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2011年7月14日星期四

Apple Final Cut Pro X

Final Cut Pro X is truly a dramatic rewrite of Apple's mature and well-developed video-editing software. It borrows some interface elements from iMovie that may disappoint seasoned professionals, and also it loses many key features that are simply an absolute necessity in the professional world, like XML export. On the other hand, those looking to upgrade from iMovie will find a lot more features in Final Cut Pro X, but there are some caveats.

Installing and downloading

Final Cut Pro X is only available via the Mac App Store. The previous Final Cut Studio came with heavy instruction manuals, which are now just help files in FCPX. We appreciate reducing paper waste, but be warned that the digital help files won't offer any images unless you are connected to the internet.

Getting started

When you first launch Final Cut Pro X, the old Final Cut loading screen is replaced by a new semitransparent load screen that let's you know this is the 10.0 iteration of the professional software. But what comes after that is nothing like the 10 previous versions of Final Cut.

You'll first notice a prominent option to Import iMovie Events right above the Import Files and Import From Camera options. If you're wondering if we skipped a step, you're wrong. According to Final Cut Pro X's help file, you don't create a project first. Instead, you import media and manage your media first. You can, however, create a project first and import later. But it just goes to show you how much Apple believes that data-based video workflows are the future of post-production.

New interface

FCPX's new interface borrows some style elements from iMovie, which will really have many editors scratching their head. But first, multiple windows have largely disappeared.

Instead of windows, like in previous versions, we now get panels. The panels have default positions, but they can fortunately be resized.

For the most part, the panel locations are generally where you want them to be, but we would have preferred more customisation options. Users can specify the Viewer or the Events panels to live on secondary monitors, but it's still no match for arranging windows to whatever your project or personal preferences are.

The Viewer

The biggest change is the new Viewer. Previous users of Final Cut Pro will wonder what happened to the Viewer and Canvas windows.

They have been combined into a single panel called the Viewer. In previous versions of Final Cut Pro, the Viewer loaded clips to edit or it let users manipulate the properties of a clip. The Canvas traditionally showed the current frame of the playhead in the Timeline. Final Cut Pro X now combines both the viewer and canvas into one panel simply called the Viewer.

Simpler is better though, right? Actually, we're not so sure.

Final Cut Pro 7 used the decades-old convention of Source and Record editing (which Apple, of course, had to refer differently as the Viewer and Canvas). It traces back to the day of linear editing, when a producer or editor would load up one clip from a video deck, mark the start and stop and then record on to a second tape.

Old as it might be, the source/record convention is blazingly fast. Watching a professional editor is like watching a pianist. Loading clips, scrubbing through to find the perfect clip, marking an in point and an out point, then laying on the timeline could be accomplished without touching the mouse at all. For Apple, it's a difference of philosophy.

Creating a new project

Starting a new project feels a bit strange because the program does little to explain new concepts like Events. Events are Apple's new way of describing media libraries. An event contains the actual media files of your project, as well as metadata information.

When you create a new project, there are no options like resolution or codec until you select custom. By default, the app will pick a resolution and frame rate based on the first clip you use.

You can select custom options, which will support most of the standard resolutions: 1080i, 1080p, 720p, NTSC, PAL, 2K and 4K. The Other options curiously do not let you set custom resolutions. Instead, you're limited to 640x480 pixels and 960x540 pixels. Apple says that you can use Compressor to scale and resize your videos.

Frame rates are also limited to standard NTSC, PAL and film rates of 23.98, 24, 25, 29.97, 30, 50, 59.94 and 60 frames per second. Again, if you have to work in a non-standard frame rate, you're out of luck. As a sign from the future of where Apple wants to take video editing, FCPX supports 4K resolutions at 60 progressive frames per second.

Importing media

Final Cut Pro X has support for natively importing AVC-Intra, AVCHD (including AVCCAM, AVCHD Lite and NXCAM), all standard versions of DV (including DVCAM, DVCPRO, DVCPRO50 and DVCPRO HD), H.264, HDV, iFrame, Motion JPEG, MPEG IMX (D-10) and standard XDCAM HD/EX/HD422. Additionally, the program can import codecs supported by QuickTime.  AVI to FCP

Gone are the Log & Capture and Log & Transfer options. Instead, we just get options for importing media files and importing files from a camera. The new Final Cut Pro X really embraces a file-based workflow.

The closest option might be the Import From Camera. This is not the same as Log & Transfer. It's sort of an attempt at combing capture from tape and capture from memory card sources. The new import interface does support FireWire and can read mounted memory cards, as well as control playback options using the classic JKL (rewind-pause-play) keys.

It doesn't support importing certain types of files. For XDCAM users, Apple recommends installing Sony's own transfer and transcoding utility. HDV is still supported, but oddly only over tape on FireWire. You'll have to wait for HDV import from MXF files. Nor does FCPX support the ultra-high-quality Red RAW natively. For now, you can either set up your RED camera to record QuickTime movie files, which FCPX can import natively, or you can use Red's own free conversion program to convert into Apple's native ProRes format. Apple says it is working with companies like Sony and Red to create plug-ins that will allow FCPX to be a one-stop-shop for importing video.

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2011年7月12日星期二

Why Microsoft May Be Apple's Greatest Ally in the Mobile Wars

Most investors have written off Microsoft (MSFT) as a creaky old has-been that can't move fast enough to go toe to toe with today's titans of technology such as Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG). But its stock has been showing signs of life recently, rallying more than 12% off its low in the middle of June versus 4% for the broader index. One reason for this change in sentiment is the early stage success of Microsoft's Mango operating system, which has received a number of favorable reviews from critics and raised investors' hopes that Microsoft may have what it takes to compete on the mobile front after all.

As someone who's long Apple, one may surmise that this news is disappointing to me, but it had the exact opposite effect - as an Apple investor, I actually hope Microsoft does well and achieves success in its attempt to remain relevant in the post-PC era, counterintuitive though it may seem.

To explain why, we've got to rewind to the 80s, back when Microsoft was Apple's worst nemesis and the two fought a long and bloody battle for dominance over the emerging PC market. We all know how that fight turned out for Apple. There are those who say that Apple vs. Google today is eerily reminiscent of Apple vs. Microsoft two decades ago, and they wonder if history is going to repeat itself. The statistics validate this concern: Research firm Gartner reported that smartphones running Google's Android operating system accounted for 36% of industry sales during first quarter 2011, versus just 16.8% for Apple's iOS. According to data released by Nielsen, 50% of Americans who recently purchased a smartphone chose an Android phone, which is double iOS's 25% market share of new converts.

These numbers are disconcerting for an Apple investor. The network effect inherent in the adoption of any new platform gives the current market leader a self-propagating advantage that, if left unchecked for too long, becomes impossible to defeat. The longevity of any new platform is directly tied to how effectively it can attract third party developers, and developers always consolidate around the most popular platform. The more successful your platform becomes, the more developers you attract, and the more developers you have adding value to your platform with their applications, the more successful your platform becomes.

It's this powerful virtuous cycle that allowed Microsoft to crush Apple in the PC wars, and it's this phenomenon that's the biggest threat to Apple today. Right now, Apple is benefitting from its head start in mobile and still commands the largest number of developers - according to Appsfire, its App Store at over 400,000 apps is still double the size of Google's Android Market at 200,000. However, its lead is rapidly shrinking - German firm research2guidance reported that for the month of April, the Android Market added 28,000 new apps, more than double the App Store's 11,000. The race is on, and most analysts believe that it's not a question of whether or not Android will overtake iOS, but when.

Apple vs. Everyone Else

So is Apple doomed to fall to Google as it did to Microsoft twenty years ago? Not quite, and there are many reasons why things are different this time around. Not the least of which is that Apple is a much stronger company today than when it took on Microsoft. A second reason is Microsoft itself. There were only two real players going head to head in the PC wars, and as expected, the stronger one took out the weaker one. The mobile wars are going to be different, because this time, there are three players: Apple, Google, and Microsoft. Three changes the dynamics of the game entirely.

The old adage "the enemy of the enemy is my friend" fits the situation perfectly here, because this fight is not really about Apple vs. Google. It's about Apple vs. Everyone Else. Apple is notorious for not playing well with others, preferring to create the entire product from top to bottom itself instead of contracting out to other companies. This strategy allows Apple to create best in class products, the most expensive ones with the highest margins, but it also puts a hard cap on how much market share Apple can control, because the whole point of a premium gadget is that most people aren't rich enough to own one.

Apple doesn't care, it just wants to make the best widget in town - it's a bold strategy, but it can also be a dangerous one depending on how the rest of the market, the non-premium, value-oriented part, is staked out. To illustrate, let's use a baseline of 20% for the premium market, and 80% for the value market. Assuming Apple has the premium market for smartphones all to itself, if the rest of the industry consolidates around Android, there will be four times the number of Android phones in circulation compared to the number of iPhones. As a developer, would you want to develop apps for 20% of the user base, or 80%?

In reality, there's no way Google will have the entire value market to itself, and there'll always be smaller players like Research in Motion (RIMM who'll get the bright idea to create their own operating systems and chip away at Android's market share. Assuming all of the little guys collectively gobble up 10% of the market, that still leaves Android with 70% versus Apple's 20%. Let's cut off a piece of Google's slice and give Apple another 10%, since some value consumers will be able to get an extremely cheap iPhone by signing an extra long-term contract with a carrier. At 30-60, that still gives developers a huge incentive to flock to Android instead of iOS, where they have access to a consumer base twice as large.

Enter Microsoft. Microsoft is a company that markets its products to the masses instead of the elite, which makes it a much deadlier threat to Google than to Apple. Its partnership with Nokia (NOK), which is still the largest handset manufacturer in the world, is a match that has enormous potential. And if the company can execute well and create a product worth buying, Microsoft can easily become a force to be reckoned with in the mobile business. Assuming it is successful enough to steal a third of the market away from Google and half that percentage from Apple, the mobile landscape will be end up breaking down like this: Apple with 25%, Google with 40%, Microsoft with 25%, and everyone else with 10%.

Google is still top dog, but the choice between Google and Apple is no longer as obvious with these revised numbers. Yeah, you get access to more raw users with Android, but the iPhone's premium-oriented customers are more willing to pay for quality apps, which means there's potentially more money to be made developing for iOS despite the smaller userbase. Back this up with Apple's superior brand image and its loyal cult following who'll stick with Apple no matter what, and you have yourself a sustainable community of developers large enough to keep Apple's products relevant for years to come. And it's all thanks to Microsoft.

A win for Microsoft will hurt Apple, no doubt, but it'll hurt Google a whole lot more. The mobile wars will be brutal, and as an Apple investor, I'm willing to take a cut on the arm if it means my biggest rival will get stabbed in the heart. The big picture is all about Apple vs Everyone Else. The more fragmented Everyone Else is, the better it is for Apple, and this is an edge worth surrendering some market share for. What this means is that I'll be watching Microsoft's progress with great interest and cheer for it on the sidelines.

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Don't give up, Mister Softee. Keep on swinging, keep on going. As an Apple investor, I hope you succeed and do well for yourself. Not too well, of course, but just enough be a huge thorn in Google's side and slow it down some so we can leave it in the dust. Good luck.